Below is how the S&P500 reacts to the elction day over the last three elections. The 2 day before election day is at "1" and then the movement is indexed to it. e.g. if election is on 11/7/2000, then day one is the closing price of 11/6/2000.
The day before election is always a very quite one - need to remember - i.e. from 11/2/2012 to 11/5/2012 the market change is small - ths has been true for the past three ones
The day of the election (before the election) i.e. 11/5/2012 to 11/6/2012, there is some change -2% in 2000, 1% in 2004 and -4% in 2008, looks like 1.5% in 2012 (day not closed yet)
Post election, there is more movement, i.e. movement from 11/6/2012 to 11/7/2012. -2% in 2000, 1.5% in 2004, -5% in 2008 and we dont know yet for 2012
Thus, I will close my position today as there may be a major movement tomorrow.
The day before election is always a very quite one - need to remember - i.e. from 11/2/2012 to 11/5/2012 the market change is small - ths has been true for the past three ones
The day of the election (before the election) i.e. 11/5/2012 to 11/6/2012, there is some change -2% in 2000, 1% in 2004 and -4% in 2008, looks like 1.5% in 2012 (day not closed yet)
Post election, there is more movement, i.e. movement from 11/6/2012 to 11/7/2012. -2% in 2000, 1.5% in 2004, -5% in 2008 and we dont know yet for 2012
Thus, I will close my position today as there may be a major movement tomorrow.
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